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Introduction
There are many different ways of using the ratings to make a profit. It is up to the user to develop their
own strategy in line with their own betting preferences. For instance, some people prefer to have a steady stream
of winners interspersed with short losing runs. Others are comfortable with betting at longer odds in the knowledge
that the winners will eventually pay for the winners.
It is however possible to offer a few pointers.
Choose Your Races Carefully
Horse racing form is notoriously difficult to assess in certain races and these are best avoided.
These include 2 and 3 year old maidens, 2 year old handicaps
(nurseries), early season 3 year old handicaps, Novice Hurdles, Novice Chases, National Hunt Flat Races (Bumpers). Many of the horses are unraced
or have only had one or two runs and remain open to plenty of improvement.
These races often fall to newcomers and the betting market is often the best guide to the winner.
The median rating next to the race title indicates the figure usually needed to win a race of this type at this course.
If the rating of the top horse falls short (especially after a few runs) of this figure then the race is more likely
to fall to a newcomer or less exposed horse. Conversely, if the top rated horse's rating exceeds this figure by a considerable
margin then the horse is much the likely winner (especially with no negative factors) although the price may be prohibitive.
Check the win to run ratio for the number of times each horse has run. (W-R column)
Other races to avoid are Sellers, Claimers and Banded Races. These are contested by moderate and inconsistent animals.
These horses are either old, plagued by injury problems or just plain slow or worse still all three.
All age handicaps, conditions races especially class C and above and pattern races are the best races
to concentrate on. Try to avoid races with less than 6 runners as they often throw up strange results because the
race has been run at a false pace.
The Ratings
There are actually 3 ratings. These are the in the columns Odds, Rating and Speed.
Odds are the computer calculated odds taking into account about 30 variables including collateral form, speed rating, suitability of going and distance, and jockey
and trainer form plus many more.
Rating is the collateral form rating . i.e the horse top rated (in bold) is considered
best in at the weights.
Speed is the speed rating. . i.e the horse top rated (in bold) is considered to have recorded the
best performance against the clock.
The top rated horse (the lowest odds) is deemed to have the best chance of winning. However, backing them all blind will in all
probability lead to an overall loss. The best strategy is to look at the top few rated horses and strike off those
with any strong negative statistics (in red) and look to support any with strong positive factors (in blue). Above all look for
value selections, those whose odds are better than the calculated odds. Remember, it is easier to find fewer winners at longer odds
in order to make a profit than it is to find lots of winners at short odds to make the same gains.
Other Factors to Consider
Trainer statistics are one of the most important factors before making selections. Many trainers target their horses at the same races and meetings
each year and are adept at knowing the sort of horse required to win them. Favour horses with a positive statistic for the race being
contested, be wary of negative statistics. It is also useful to look at the J/T statistic as this can reveal a significant jockey booking. Finally,
check the Trainer's Recent Form figures (T-RF) and Days Since a Winner (DSW). Profitable Trainer Statistics are shown in bold for
easier identification.
Going Requirements
Check that the horse has form on today's going Going. If there is insufficient data for this then check the Sire Going figure SG. Where the horse
has run more than 10 times and the horse has no record on the prevailing going, then be wary of supporting the horse. The trainer may have good reasons for not
running it before on this surface.
Distance Requirements
Ensure that the horse has form at today's distance D. If there is insufficient data to support this then check
the sire distance stat SD.
The Draw
This only applies to flat racing but is probably one of the most important factors to consider especially
on heavily draw biased courses such as Chester, Beverley and Goodwood. The statistics are built up from
all races over the same distance at the course with 8 runners or more. Do not look at one figure in isolation.
Check the stalls around it, if there are many red figures then the chances are the draw is a poor one and the horse
should not be supported especially in handicaps where the horses are supposed to be equally matched.
Laying on the Betting Exchanges
The statistics also allow us to play bookmaker on the betting exchanges
by identifying badly priced favourites to lay. The best races to concentrate for laying are the ones to avoid
from a betting point of view i.e. sellers, claimers, banded races, nurseries and novice hurdles.
For more information on the sites available, go to the Links
page.
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